Nigeria is NOT a rich country; Needs a NEW strategy!

	The 10 most populous countries in the world	Estimated population in the year 2025	Estimated total revenue inflow (of the central/federal government) in the year 2025
1	India	1.46 billion people	US$410 billion
2	China	1.41billion people	US$2.8 trillion
3	United States	347 million people	US$5.23 trillion
4	Indonesia	285 million people	US$190.5 billion
5	Pakistan	255 million people	US$47.2 billion
6	Nigeria	230 million people	US$7.13 billion
7	Brazil	213 million people	US$1 trillion
8	Bangladesh	176 million people	US$16 billion
9	Russia	144 million people	US$426 billion
10	Mexico	132 million people	US$513 billion

Computed by Dr. Adetolu Ademujimi, Sartorius Resources, Nigeria, from various country-specific online sources.      Note: The respective foreign exchange rates of each country as of 8th January 2025 were used to convert the total revenue estimates initially expressed in their individual local currencies to United States Dollars (USD)

Considering the ₦10.7 trillion revenue of the Federal Government (FG) in 2025, Nigeria is not a rich country. Our dear Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, had informed Nigerians of the fiscal reality of 2025 when he appeared before the Nigerian Senate in December of that year to tell us that the Federal government of Nigeria’s estimated revenue in 2025 was ₦10.7 trillion – realized from both non-tax sources such as crude oil sales and taxes collected! That is a poor 7.13 billion United States Dollars (USD) when converted at the rate of ₦1,500 to 1 USD, and intended to support the health, education, infrastructure, agriculture, security, and the overall economic needs of an estimated 230 million Nigerians over the past year. I am therefore not surprised by the endless recourse to local and external borrowing to finance capital budget items. Of course, this low national earning excludes the Internally Generated Revenues (IGRs) of States and Local Government Councils. However, except for Lagos State, how much do the other 35 States & Federal Capital Territory generate in reality to be of significance to this conversation? Although the World Bank’s appropriate classification of Nigeria as a Lower-Middle Income country (LMIC) already tells it all, the man on the street may never understand such polished terminology as Lower-Middle Income country (LMIC), partly because of the elitist nature of this economic jargon, and the unfortunate fact that the excesses of those in positions of authority give a false sense of national wealth. Consequently, this publication seeks to declare, in plain & relatable language based on evidence, that Nigeria is not a wealthy nation.

The fact that Nigeria has oil & gas assets, arable land for agricultural resources, limestone, gold, lithium, and other mineral resources does not guarantee enormous financial returns or a positive balance sheet.  My father’s generation, which falls within President Bola Tinubu’s peer group, needs to be cautious in their chant that “Nigeria is a land flowing with milk and honey,” when in fact these “milk and honey” have not been optimally exploited or developed to generate more money for us. After all, these resources yielded only 7.13 billion USD in 2025 for a humongous population. This means that potential is not equal to actual, and natural resources do not equate to fiscal reality. Our unpleasant financial state, therefore, forbids the cultures of grandstanding, corruption, and waste that those I call “the three musketeers” - comprising political office holders, civil servants & government contractors - continually exhibit and, worse still, pass down to successive generations of Nigerians.

Again, I emphasize with “my full chest” that Nigeria is not a rich country. If Mr X in Ibadan earns ₦500,000 monthly (which translates to a yearly income of ₦6 million) but has three wives and fifteen children, will he be objectively considered more financially stable than Mr Z, his neighbour, who fathers two children from one wife with a ₦200,000 monthly salary (totalling ₦2.4 million annually)? It doesn’t matter whether Mr X is a “wanna be” who drives around in a Lexus, which the car dealer has threatened to withdraw because of his inability to offset the purchase balance. It wouldn’t count if Mr X always wears expensive clothes that he borrows money from a close pal to buy, when, in contrast, his fifteen children and three wives put on tattered garments. Mr X will only be considered a well-to-do man when his earning power is at least several times more than his current income. Thus, my assertion about Nigeria, which is drawn from this analogy, will be more relevant when you realize that Nigeria had the lowest revenue profile among the ten most populous countries in the world as of 2025 (as shown on the screen).

Let’s compare the year 2025 total revenues of the respective federal governments of some of the other nine highly populated countries of the world, shown on the screen, with Nigeria’s earnings within the same year. Pakistan is a country located in the Asian continent, classified as LMIC (like Nigeria), a former British colony (like Nigeria), plagued by post-independence internal conflicts & political instability (similar to Nigeria’s) and with a population of 255 million people that ranks it as the fifth most populous country in the world while Nigeria follows it closely as the 6th most populous nation. Pakistan is estimated to have collected US$47.2 billion in revenue in 2025 – almost 7 times Nigeria’s low revenue of US$7.133 billion. It should be noted that about 73% of Pakistan’s 2025 earnings came from taxes, while non-tax sources, such as petroleum levy and revenue from State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), accounted for the remaining 27%.

Then comes Brazil, a South American nation classified as an Upper Middle-Income Country (UMIC) with 26 States & a Federal district (whereas Nigeria has 36 States & a Federal Capital Territory). The Federal government of Brazil had an estimated revenue inflow of US$1 trillion (one trillion USD) in 2025 for its 213 million population, and taxes contributed a significant portion of these proceeds, while non-tax revenues (from customs duties, income from State-Owned Enterprises, etc.) were also included.

As I round up, what are some key lessons for Nigeria to significantly improve its revenue outlook rather than continue to create a wrong impression and grandstand as though it were a rich country?  

1. Revenue diversification from crude oil sales - The Federal government should hasten its diversification effort from crude oil-dominated revenue because a careful analysis of the 10 countries shown herein reveals that, though 5 of them (namely the United States, Russia, China, Brazil, Mexico) are among the top 12 oil producers in the world, these countries have diversified revenue sources. Russia, for instance, has massive high-yielding investments in gas and even several non-energy sources of income. China is also a gigantic industrial nation, and so forth, and therefore we are not surprised by the revenues these two countries, for instance, were able to earn in 2025.

2. Privatization - A significant learning curve is that although the Brazilian government holds substantial investments in numerous SOEs, it has progressively allowed the privatization of these ventures for greater efficiency and profitability, thereby permitting the government’s increased focus on its regulatory functions in a collaborative manner for mutual benefits. The recent privatization of the hitherto Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to NNPC Ltd is one Nigerian example that comes to mind. It is hoped that the Federal government will extend similar divestment & privatization measures to moribund public assets, such as refineries, government-owned industries, and other SOEs, to unlock idle capital and ensure regular revenue inflow from these entities before they deteriorate & become significantly devalued. In addition, the Federal government needs to do more to improve the business environment (through improved security, stable power, better ease of doing business index, forex stability, and other necessary investment incentives) to attract substantial private sector participation across the solid minerals and agricultural sectors, as numerous private entities operating a local value chain in these areas will ensure massive remittance of levies, personal income & corporate income taxes and so forth to government coffers in the medium- & long-term.

3. Taxation - It remains to be seen if the operationalization of Nigeria’s new tax administration that took effect on the 1st day of January 2026 will help the Federal government raise substantial revenues.

4. Fiscal federalism – I call it “Lucrative Liberalism,” as stated in my book titled DIAL 811: DEFT or DAFT? and published in 2022. It involves the decentralization of powers to the 36 States & Federal Capital Territory to strengthen their Legal, Geographic, Administrative, Political, & Economic powers needed to galvanize the massive exploration of their areas of comparative advantage in their respective domains, making more money for development and enabling them to compete as though they were 37 countries. The United States of America, arguably the wealthiest country in the world, thrives on fiscal federalism to serve its 347 million population. However, the first step toward attaining fiscal federalism in Nigeria is to overhaul the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended), which unfortunately & “daftly” promotes a unitary system or over-centralization of power that stifles exponential growth & development.

5. Financial prudence – The wasteful culture seen in the needlessly high operational costs of governance (for example, purchase of thousands of Sports Utility Vehicles for political office holders & top civil servants, payment of exorbitant multi-faceted “allowances” to Federal legislators) and so on, must stop. Also, the corrupt practices in our public procurement system, which are carried out by the “three musketeers” of political office holders, civil servants & government contractors to clandestinely fritter away our scarce financial resources through inflated contracts, kickbacks, etc., must be reduced to the barest minimum. 

Finally, in case you’re still doubting my fact-based position that my dear country Nigeria and giant of Africa is not rich, please note that Saudi Arabia, which maintained its position as the world’s number one exporter of crude oil in year 2025 raked in an estimated 300 billion USD from oil sales last year for its estimated 35 million population while Kuwait, another giant exporter of crude oil in the global energy space, saw total revenues of about 99 billion USD from the sale of fossil fuels in its 2024-2025 fiscal year that ended in March 2025 for a population of 5 million people. In fact, for Nigeria’s 2025 revenue of 7.13 billion USD to fund the United States government’s military budget of 849 billion USD in the same year, Nigeria would require 120 years of its 2025 revenue, whereas the U.S. expended that amount in one budget year. Therefore, Nigeria’s 7.13 billion USD federal government revenue in 2025, earned from both crude oil and non-oil sources for an estimated population of 230 million people, does not correspond to being wealthy – at least, as it currently stands – and I’m sorry if I just broke your heart with this uncomfortable truth! And in case you wonder why I converted the ₦10.7 trillion in revenue to USD, please be reminded that Nigeria is an import-dependent nation, and its Federal government conducts most of its import-related transactions in USD. 

My name is Adetolu Ademujimi, a Medical Doctor, Healthcare Finance Specialist, Author, Public Policy expert, and social entrepreneur who can be reached in Abuja through adetoluademujimi@gmail.com. You can also visit my website www.adetoluademujimi.com.

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